![]() That is not to say that development does not matter. And they are getting better annually due to advancements in technology and data. For every two-star who becomes a big success, there are multiples who will be going pro in something other than sports. ![]() And five-stars are about 33 times more likely to be All-Americans as two-stars are. Four- and five-star recruits are about 10 times more likely to be drafted in the first round than their two- and three-star counterparts. But they are damn good, especially in the aggregate. Teams who sign elite class after elite class have greater competition in practice, and greater quality of depth. Even those teams who stay relatively healthy need depth to survive the season. The requirement to stack talent on top of talent makes sense when considering the violence of the sport of football. The Blue-Chip Ratio threshold does not guarantee a national championship, but a team not meeting it is almost certainly guaranteed not to win it all. RELATED: Sonny Dykes on how TCU will follow its magical 2022 season Think Wisconsin, Baylor, Michigan State, TCU, Utah, Cincinnati, TCU, etc. Media will sometimes hype a team which has not met the threshold as a national title contender, but history has shown that is not a smart practice. This has been true basically as far back as modern internet recruiting rankings have existed. Put simply, to win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA “Blue Chips”) than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes. It’s not the most complicated calculation in the world, but it’s a great way to figure out the top 10 percent or so of the teams in the sport which can actually take home the title. Since its inception in 2013 the Blue-Chip Ratio been referenced on all the major broadcast networks and tracked closely by head coaches and administrators. That’s the question I set out to answer more than a decade ago in creating the Blue-Chip Ratio. How much talent does it take to win the national championship in college football?
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